| Spinshield projections for the next two years. (From 2006) |
| The upcoming battles in the US government won't be between Democrats and Republicans. Rather they'll be between Congressional Republicans and the Republican administration, with Congressional Democrats throwing fuel on the fire.
Domestic Issues During the first several months of the new Congressional term, watch for the new Democratic majorities to pass a series of popular bills (increased minimum wage, negotiating for Medicare drug prices, embryonic stem-cell research, etc.) which will be systematically vetoed by the White House. This will setup the foundation of the Democratic presidential candidate in ’08…”Elect a Democratic President so that these laws can be enacted.” Iraq Occupation The White House has spent years framing this debate as a choice between “cut and run” and “stay the course.” Any strategy the White House endorses can be boiled down to one of these two options, and either way, the White House loses. They refuse to consider a withdrawal of troops, and continuing the present strategy has been discredited by the voters in the ’06 election. The entire country has exaggerated expectations of the Baker commission. The expectation is that this commission will present the White House with some kind of magic new solution that will solve the problems in Iraq. However, there is no magic new solution. There are nothing but already dismissed strategies that lead to bad outcomes, and all the commission can do is endorse one of them. Since the Baker commission knows that anything involving troop reduction/withdrawal will be rejected by the White House, watch for a strategy that involves a minor increase in troop numbers (in the 10% - 15% range) along with a recommendation to begin negotiations with other power brokers in the region. Since a minor escalation in troop strength won’t make any real difference on the ground, and since leaders like Bashar Al-Assad in Syria and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran have been ridiculed and marginalized by the White House for years, these sorts of strategies amount to nothing more than stalling techniques. The result will be more of the same in Iraq for the foreseeable future. Neighborhoods segregating themselves into tribal regions, sectional militias taking over police duties in the various segregated districts, more fake checkpoints and kidnappings, murders and massacres. Meanwhile the U.S. anointed government will remain holed up in the Green Zone and continue to become increasingly irrelevant in the Iraqi streets. As the next election cycle approaches, the dozen odd Republican Senators and the 200 odd Republican Congressmen will be screaming bloody murder for the White House to change course in Iraq. They will be adamant that the White House not cause a repeat of the results of the ’06 congressional elections. Perseverance in the face of adversity is admirable, but it’s not as admirable as clinging to power. In the meantime, Congressional Democrats will hold hearings on the fraud and abuse associated with the occupation, if not the false rational for the initial invasion itself. Watch for contractors who have accepted billions in reconstruction fees in exchange for shoddy or non-existent work to be paraded before House and Senate sub-committees and ridiculed for war profiteering in front of the entire nation. If emboldened by initial public relations successes, congressional committees may march White House representatives to Capitol Hill to explain why the invasion was instigated in the first place. These hearings will contribute to public pressure to withdraw from Iraq, which will in turn force congressional Republicans who are up for reelection on ’08 to rail against White House stubbornness. The 2008 Presidential Election It's far too early to seriously speculate about who may run for president in '08, let alone who might win. However, since the theme of this article is peering into the future, let's have some fun. First of all, let's spend a moment deflating conventional wisdom. The election will not be Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain. The far right will never allow the nomination of John McCain. Pat Robertson has explicitly said that he will not support McCain under any circumstances. In addition, McCain has staked increased troop numbers as his position on the Iraq occupation. As previously stated, that strategy will fail both on the ground and in the court of public opinion. At some point he will be force to "flip-flop", which will cement his demise as a potential Republican nominee. It's not as sure of a bet to say that Hillary Clinton will fail in her bid to be the Democratic nominee. However it would be better for the Democratic Party if she does fail. Clinton is too divisive a figure to win the White House. She brings too much history and baggage to the race. Plus there is the obvious fact that she is a woman. That's not to say that a female candidate has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency, but this particular woman does not. Besides that, even though the left-wing base would embrace here eventually, they would find her too moderate and too willing to compromise her positions in order to placate the middle during the primary process. Who will it be then? As stated earlier, any specific predictions would be going way out on a limb at this point... but here goes. Eliot Spitzer vs. Elizabeth Dole. In truth, '08 will be way too early for Spitzer to consider a presidential run. However, in the opinion of this column, he is the brightest star on the Democratic bench (excuse the sports metaphor) and there's no doubt we'll be hearing more from him as the years go by. Admittedly, predicting a President Spitzer in '08 is a bit of a reach. Predicting a President Spitzer at some point in the future is not. And he will make a good one. When (if?) a woman is ever elected president, it will have to be a conservative woman…probably a Republican. Why Elizabeth Dole? Well, after the W. debacle of the last 6 years and his low poll ratings at this point (are they in the negatives yet?) the Bush name is way too tainted to run on the '08 ticket. (Sorry Jeb.) Since there has been either a Bush or a Dole on every Republican presidential ticket since 1976 (think it through), it's not really such a reach after all. Or maybe here's a safer prediction…Al Gore vs. Fred Thompson. Conclusion The bottom line is that the White House and the Republican party have, for six years, been advocates for right-wing cultural despots and corporate greed mongers, as well as for the occupation of a sovereign country for no reason other than to boost the poll ratings of an incapable president and to enrich the cronies of a war profiteering vice-president. No amount of spin by congressional Republicans running for reelection can change that fundamental truth. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. The recent election has shifted the momentum to the Democrats, who will (hopefully) take advantage of their hard won gains to expose these Republican endeavors in the court of public opinion. Should be an interesting two years. |
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| By May of 2009 you will see a new star in the southern sky. This star will get larger and larger over the next two years. In history it is called the star of David. In sience it is called Planet X. It is a solor system with seven planets around it. It will orbit through our solar system. It will cross between Mars and Erath. At its peak orbit it will block out the Sun we will have three days of darkness. This will happen in Dec 2012, the day the asteck calendar ends. The Erath as it has alway rocked back and forth on its axes will now filp over on its axes. Total global change will occur and a new world will be built. Will it be a monitary system as it is now or a technology based system that is the real war of the this centry. | Robert Tollison Broken Bow, OK |
3/23/2009 |
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